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Briefing · Open models· Updated 16 September 2026· 7 min read

The open frontier moved to China: Meta closes, DeepSeek V4 ships, and who is building on whose weights

In April 2026 Meta released its first frontier model without open weights and DeepSeek released one with a million-token window under a permissive licence. The rankings, the licences and the download data all say the same thing: the open half of the field is now built in China, and Europe builds on it.

April 2026 contained two releases that, taken together, describe where open-weight AI actually is. On the 8th Meta shipped its first frontier model without open weights. On the 24th DeepSeek shipped one with them. This briefing sets out what each is technically, what the licences on the Chinese models now actually say, where that leaves Europe, and what the AI Act does to the whole arrangement. It is written on 30 April with the sources available then.

Meta closes

Meta announced the Llama 4 family on 5 April 2025: Scout, Maverick, and a two-trillion-parameter Behemoth. Behemoth slipped repeatedly on capability concerns and was never publicly released, which left Meta without a genuinely frontier open model going into 2026. Muse Spark, released on Wednesday 8 April 2026, was the first release under Alexandr Wang's leadership of the AI effort, and it was closed. Meta's AI app climbed to number five on the App Store within a day, which TechCrunch attributed directly to the launch.[1] For eighteen months Llama had been the default answer to "which open model", including for a great many European firms that wanted weights they could host themselves. That answer expired quietly.

DeepSeek V4, and what is underneath it

DeepSeek's January paper set the direction. Engram, published on 13 January with a Peking University team under founder Liang Wenfeng, addresses a specific waste: transformers burn the same expensive attention on simple factual lookups as on hard reasoning. The researchers' own framing is that "the problem is that Transformer lacks a 'native knowledge lookup' ability".[2] Their fix runs hash-based constant-time lookups on short token sequences against very large embedding tables, with a gating layer that suppresses retrieved patterns contradicting the context, applied at some layers and not all. Reported gains: reasoning accuracy from 70% to 74%, knowledge retrieval from 57% to 61%, and a hundred-billion-parameter embedding table offloaded to host memory at under 3% throughput cost.[3]

V4 itself, per the day-zero engineering write-up published alongside the serving code, mixes three attention types per layer: sliding-window attention over the last 128 tokens, a top-512 sparse attention over a four-to-one compressed cache, and a dense attention over a 128-to-one compressed cache. Add a generalised residual connection for gradient flow and native four-bit expert weights, and the result supports a one-million-token context. The inference numbers are the striking part: decode throughput on a B200 falls only from 199 to 180 tokens a second across a range from 4,000 to 900,000 tokens of context, about a tenth, where a naive implementation would fall off a cliff.[4]

ModelReleasedSizeLicence
DeepSeek V424 Apr 20261M-token context, sparse MoEPermissive
GLM-5.1 (Z.ai)9 Apr 2026754BMIT
Kimi K2.6 (Moonshot)Early 20261T total, 32B active, 256K contextMIT plus attribution above 100m users or $20m/month
MiniMax-M2.718 Mar 2026Not disclosedNo commercial use without written permission
Mistral Large 3Dec 2025675BOpen weights
Muse Spark (Meta)8 Apr 2026Not disclosedClosed
The open-weight lineup as of 30 April 2026. Parameter counts are total, not active. Sources: [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1]

The hardware story is the one with geopolitical weight. V4 launched with same-day support on Huawei Ascend 950 silicon in both its variants, with Cambricon and Hygon also completing day-zero adaptation, and with Nvidia publishing its own guide to running V4 on Blackwell. By 29 April Reuters reported Chinese technology firms scrambling to secure Ascend chips after the launch, with DeepSeek itself said to have ordered 160,000 Ascend 950DT accelerators.[9] Export controls were designed to make Chinese frontier training hard. What they produced is a Chinese frontier model that runs on Chinese chips.

What the licences actually say

"Open" has stopped being one thing, and a business that reads the headline instead of the file will get this wrong. Moonshot's Kimi K2.6 uses a modified MIT licence: standard MIT plus a single added obligation that products derived from the software "must display 'Kimi K2.6' prominently in their user interface if they exceed either 100 million monthly active users or generate more than $20 million in monthly revenue".[6] For almost every company that is no constraint at all. MiniMax went the other way. M2.7, published on 18 March, is tagged neither MIT nor modified-MIT, and its licence file prohibits commercial use without separate, prior written authorisation, defined broadly enough to cover any paid product, any commercial API deployment, and any commercially deployed fine-tune; free use is limited to personal projects, self-hosted development and non-profit or academic research.[7] That is a binary gate, not a revenue threshold, and it is a material difference between two models that both appear on the same leaderboards under the same word.

Europe

Europe's April news was consolidation. On 24 April, Canada's Cohere agreed to acquire Germany's Aleph Alpha, with Germany's Schwarz Group leading a €500m structured financing into Cohere's Series E and Schwarz's Stackit sovereign-cloud service becoming the technical foundation, subject to shareholder approval and competition clearance.[10] Cohere's Aidan Gomez framed it as organisations "demanding uncompromising control over their AI stack"; Aleph Alpha's Ilhan Scheer spoke of "access to powerful, yet controllable AI they can truly own"; Forrester's Thomas Husson called the result "a unique transatlantic player designed to challenge the dominance of US giants".[10] The honest reading is that Europe's best-funded national champion sold, and the buyer is not European.

What Europe does still have is real, and it is not a frontier model. Mistral Large 3 shipped in December 2025 at 675 billion parameters with open weights and three small companion models. OpenEuroLLM, funded under the Digital Europe Programme, runs as a consortium of Charles University, AI Sweden, Aleph Alpha, AMD's Silo AI, the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Jülich, CINECA, CSC Finland and SURF, sharing training code and evaluation frameworks publicly.[11] And Stanford's AI Index, published on 14 April, reported that the US and Chinese model-performance gap had effectively closed, that the US invested $286bn in AI in 2025 and hosts more than ten times any other nation's AI data-centre capacity, while China leads on volume, industrial robot installations, citations and patents. Adoption, notably, is highest neither in the US nor China: 61% in Singapore, 54% in the UAE, around 28% in the US.[12]

The rules on top

The AI Act's treatment of open models is narrower than it is usually described. Article 53(2) exempts providers of models "released under a free and open-source licence that allows for the access, usage, modification, and distribution of the model", with parameters, architecture and usage information public, from two of the transparency duties. The same paragraph then closes it: "This exception shall not apply to general-purpose AI models with systemic risks."[13] And Article 51(2) presumes systemic risk whenever cumulative training computation exceeds 10²⁵ floating-point operations.[14] None of the models in the table above has published a confirmed operations count, but on their scale DeepSeek V4, GLM-5.1 and Kimi K2.6 are all plausible candidates. The practical consequence for a European business is that hosting an open Chinese model does not move it outside the Act, and the obligations that matter attach to the deployer as well as the provider.

Sources

  1. [1]Meta AI app climbs to No. 5 on the App Store after Muse Spark launch (opens in a new tab) · TechCrunch · 9 Apr 2026
  2. [2]DeepSeek publishes Engram paper on conditional memory (opens in a new tab) · DigiTimes · 13 Jan 2026
  3. [3]DeepSeek's conditional memory fixes silent LLM waste (opens in a new tab) · VentureBeat · 14 Jan 2026
  4. [4]Day-0 support for DeepSeek V4 in SGLang (opens in a new tab) · LMSYS Org · 25 Apr 2026
  5. [5]Z.ai releases GLM-5.1: 754B model tops SWE-Bench Pro (opens in a new tab) · WinBuzzer · 9 Apr 2026
  6. [6]Kimi K2.6 licence (opens in a new tab) · Moonshot AI, on Hugging Face · 2026
  7. [7]MiniMax-M2.7 licence (opens in a new tab) · MiniMax, on Hugging Face · 18 Mar 2026
  8. [8]Mistral Large 3 released with open weights (opens in a new tab) · TechCrunch · Dec 2025
  9. [9]Big Chinese tech firms scramble to secure Huawei AI chips after DeepSeek V4 launch (opens in a new tab) · Reuters · 29 Apr 2026
  10. [10]Cohere buys Aleph Alpha to forge sovereign AI alternative to US big tech (opens in a new tab) · Silicon Republic · 24 Apr 2026
  11. [11]OpenEuroLLM (opens in a new tab) · OpenEuroLLM consortium · 2026
  12. [12]Stanford: China effectively closes US AI model performance gap (opens in a new tab) · Silicon Republic · 14 Apr 2026
  13. [13]Article 53: obligations for providers of general-purpose AI models (opens in a new tab) · EU AI Act · 12 Jul 2024
  14. [14]Article 51: classification of general-purpose AI models with systemic risk (opens in a new tab) · EU AI Act · 12 Jul 2024
  15. [15]Meta says it will open the weights for Muse Spark 1.2 (opens in a new tab) · TechTimes · Aug 2026
  16. [16]Tencent's Apache-licensed Hy3 takes on GLM-5.2 at half the size (opens in a new tab) · VentureBeat · 6 Jul 2026
  17. [17]Tencent Hy3 usage jumps 68-fold after full release (opens in a new tab) · TechNode · 13 Aug 2026
  18. [18]Cisco's AI supply chain provenance explorer (opens in a new tab) · VentureBeat · Aug 2026
  19. [19]Meta's undecided Muse Spark 1.3 weights and the AI Act's open-source exemption (opens in a new tab) · The Next Web · 2 Sept 2026
  20. [20]Zhipu raises $4 billion in Hong Kong share sale (opens in a new tab) · Reuters · 8 Jul 2026
  21. [21]Nvidia releases Nemotron 3.5 Lightning (opens in a new tab) · CNBC · Aug 2026
  22. [22]DeepSeek V4 Flash tops OpenRouter weekly token rankings (opens in a new tab) · TechNode · 5 Aug 2026
  23. [23]Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.1 (opens in a new tab) · Artificial Analysis · 15 Jun 2026
  24. [24]DeepSeek V4.1 Flash prices cached input at $0.003 per million tokens (opens in a new tab) · Forbes · 14 Sept 2026

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